Categories for Stock Market News

  • How Will the Biden Administration Influence the Federal Reserve?

    Posted Date December 1, 2020 Posted Time 12:00 pm Published in

    With the nation on the precipice of a transition of administrations on Jan. 20, 2021, there will need to be many roles filled both in and out of the White House. With the potential for Janet Yellen to replace Steven Mnuchin as the next treasury secretary, there is much speculation about how the Federal Reserve will be shaped by the Biden administration. Predicting Changes to the Federal Reserve When 2022 arrives, Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell’s term will expire. While presidents have historically given another term to first-term chairs who were appointed by the outgoing administration, there is... View Article

  • How Would a Second Stimulus Check Impact Markets?

    Posted Date November 1, 2020 Posted Time 12:00 pm Published in

    The $1,200 stimulus check sent out to individuals had mixed impacts on our economy, based on academic research, including by the University of California-Davis. For recipients with $3,000 or more in their bank accounts, there was no positive impact on the economy. However, for recipients with bank account balances up to $500, they spent 44.5 percent of their check, on average, within 10 days of receiving the stimulus check. The first stimulus check was part of the CARES Act, which guided how the checks were issued: The IRS began with those who filed 2018 and/or 2019 taxes, and looked at... View Article

  • Examining Fed’s New Targeted Inflation Policy

    Posted Date October 1, 2020 Posted Time 12:00 pm Published in

    Looking back to 2012, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – a collaboration of the 12 regional Fed banks and the Federal Reserve Governors in Washington – came together and published a Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. This officially rang in the FOMC’s public commitment to maintain inflation at 2 percent. It is based on a yearly change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, and is in accordance with The Federal Reserve’s “mandate for maximum employment and price stability.” Guided by three events in the economy, according to the Brookings Institution, the FOMC was prompted... View Article

  • How Will Monetary Policy Impact Markets Going Forward?

    Posted Date September 1, 2020 Posted Time 12:00 pm Published in

    With gold hitting $2,000 an ounce in recent days, coupled with the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy creating a lot of liquidity, how will markets perform for the rest of 2020 and beyond? Based on a reading from the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its July 28 to July 29 meeting, the Fed remarked that the ongoing pandemic would continue to put a strain on the economy, slowing expansion and causing additional damage to the country’s monetary framework. The Fed highlighted the nation’s GDP drop by 32.9 percent in the second quarter. While Q3 growth is expected to be positive, that was... View Article

  • How Will the Market Price in Q2 Earnings?

    Posted Date August 1, 2020 Posted Time 12:00 pm Published in

    The New York Fed Staff Nowcast predicts a negative 14.3 percent (-14.3 percent) growth of real GDP for Q2 of 2020 and a positive 13.2 percent growth of real GDP for Q3 of 2020. Clearly, the Fed is expecting a rebound in the second half of 2020. This forecast, presented in the July 17, 2020: New York Fed Staff Nowcast, attributes better than expected results for industrial production, capacity utilization, and retail sales data categories, resulting in the upward revision. For June 2020, the forecast for the Industrial Production Index was 2.48, but the actual figure was 5.41. As the... View Article

  • How Likely Would a Second Coronavirus Wave Negatively Impact the Stock Market?

    Posted Date July 1, 2020 Posted Time 12:00 pm Published in

    As Johns Hopkins University of Medicine’s Coronavirus Resource Center revealed a recent increase of coronavirus cases in the Southern and Southwestern United States, the VIX ticked up. With fears of the outbreak curve not flattening, how will this impact markets? The Volatility Index (VIX) was established by the Chicago Board Options Exchange in 1993 to gauge volatility in the financial markets. Referred to colloquially as the “fear index”, it measures the next 30 days of anticipated volatility for the U.S. Stock Market via S&P 500 options. For reference, during the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, it topped out at... View Article

  • Are Dividends Becoming a Luxury During the Coronavirus Pandemic?

    Posted Date June 1, 2020 Posted Time 12:00 pm Published in

    According to the futures market, Chicago Mercantile Exchange contracts are forecasting a drop of 27 percent in dividends over 24 months for the S&P 500 index. Dividends are projected to fall to $42.05 in 2021, a drop from 2020’s dividend of $47.55 and 2019’s high of $58.24. Looking forward to 2026, according to CME’s futures contract, the dividend is expected to recover to $56.65. While the latter years are not as likely as what’s up next, it’s worth taking note. Although these dividend levels have already been announced, the future doesn’t look much brighter. According to Goldman Sachs, Q2 economic... View Article

  • How Will U.S. Employment Figures, Coronavirus Impact Job Markets?

    Posted Date May 1, 2020 Posted Time 12:00 pm Published in

    With the CARES Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security) signed into law by President Trump on March 27, this set into motion major initiatives by the U.S. government in response to the coronavirus’ economic impact. This Act provides $2 trillion in financial aid to the nation, in big part to soften the impact of the coronavirus’ hit to the country’s unemployment numbers. For the week ending April 11, seasonally adjusted jobless claims came in at 5,245,000, a drop of 1,370,000 from the April 9 revised level of 6,615,000, according to an April 16 news release from the U.S. Department... View Article

  • Understanding the Oil War between Russia and Saudi Arabia

    Posted Date April 1, 2020 Posted Time 12:00 pm Published in

    Over the past six years, domestic crude oil has experienced a volatile ride. 2014 saw the emergence of American shale as producers were attracted to the $114 price levels. However, in 2016 the price for a barrel eventually fell to $27 as a global supply glut developed. 2016 also saw Russia and Saudi Arabia form an oil pact that drew together Russia and OPEC, leading to the so-called OPEC+ to navigate the global oil market. This agreement would eventually culminate into the current crude oil tensions that exist between Saudi Arabia and Russia. Through the early 2000s – up until... View Article

  • Coronavirus: Black Swan or Buying Opportunity?

    Posted Date March 1, 2020 Posted Time 12:00 pm Published in

    According to the World Economic Forum (WEF), the spread of the coronavirus will impact the world’s economy. Whether it’s a Reuter’s poll from economic experts projecting growth in China slowing to 4.5 percent in Q1 of 2020, in contrast to China’s Q4 GDP of 6 percent; or the International Energy Agency (IEA) saying world desire for oil will be lower due to the coronavirus; or global companies reducing or temporarily closing their Chinese factories, change is on its way. Based on this data, what does the global economic outlook entail? In order to understand how the coronavirus might impact global... View Article

Copyrights @ 2019. James O. Taylor